The future, Conan? Yes. All the way to the year X, when the second Gulf War is over.
How does it end? Well, Josh Marshall shares an email from a source that describes 3 possible outcomes. (Frankly, I'm not sure that these are the 3 most likely outcomes, but I'll save that for later.) One is the near-total destruction of Baghdad by air, so as to avoid large casualties in urban combat, and another is a coalition entry into the city, followed by a retreat. The last and most likely one is a surrounding of Baghdad, sealing off everything within 50 miles of the city center. There is a lot more to this last option; I'll let you read it.
I was particularly interested in ID'ing his source, which i thought would be near-trivial considering the description he gives (career diplomat, U.S. ambassador to a Muslim country, studied at National War College). I've come up with Peter Galbraith. He's one of only two on that page with particular experience in Iraq. You can watch a video of him at the Foreign Policy Association. Anyone want to try their Google kung-fu on perhaps coming up with a different name? I think my guess might be a little off because Mr. Galbraith is still part of the NWC faculty.
Posted by complex at April 1, 2003 12:08 AM | TrackBack